A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
